With no tightened fabric and heat pumps which have their highest CoP when you don't need heating and lower CoP when demands are highest; and with high electricity prices and insufficient electricity generation to cover current demands for energy, let alone increased demands on the grid - what will the effect on fuel prices be? Will these homes be affordable if designers go back to the worst fabric that they can?
- I suspect that relaxing fabric performance over and above the details specified in consultation will be unlikely in many instances, irrespective of which options the Government settles on. Option 1 requires large PV arrays which will not be deliverable on some house types and especially where the orientation is east or west, the dwelling will have to go further than the notional to comply, given a PV array is orientated south in the notional. for Option 2, heat pump performance in the notional is top end and not all heat pumps will hit this standard, again meaning improvements over the notional will be needed. Either way, there appears limited opportunity to relax fabric standards in the notional. The Consultation also states that the fabric in the notional is an optimal balance between optimal fabric performance for heat pumps and cost effective ROI on further improvements to fabric. As for the impact on fuel prices, if I could accurately predict these, I'd have a successful career in investments...